JAI

Everyone is promising it. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which impressively became the main opposition party in its debut in the state in 2017, is counting on its assurance of changing the plight of Punjab’s voters to help it win.

Both the regional Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) – which had to do massive damage control after initially speaking in favour of the controversial farm laws – and opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) hope voters’ discontent with the ruling Congress party will see them through.

Even the Congress says if given another chance, they will change – by moving away from top-down decisions and keep the common citizen front and centre.

Voters are also clear they want accountability from their representatives, and are unlikely to be swayed by the number of freebies being announced by every political party.

“Political parties haven’t solved any of our problems,” says Bhano, a Dalit (formerly untouchable) daily-wage labourer who says she hasn’t got government assistance despite crushing poverty.

“The awareness that common people need to assert themselves and raise their voices for their rights gained ground during the farmers’ protests. People have now started demanding accountability from their representatives for the promises made to them. This will play a role in the voters’ decision,” says Jagtar Singh, a writer and senior journalist.

That’s why the AAP – which has never been in power in Punjab and is showcasing its governance record in national capital Delhi – is giving a tough fight to the Congress, which had won 77 out of 117 assembly seats in the last assembly election.

Arvind Kejriwal, AAP chief and Delhi chief minister, alleges that both the Congress party and the SAD have failed to keep their promises to people despite being in power for decades since the state was formed in the 1960s.

“In Delhi, we have provided free medical facilities, improved education in government schools and provided 24-hour electricity supply. We will do the same in Punjab if you give us a chance,” he says.

The AAP was the first to announce a chief ministerial candidate – two-time lawmaker Bhagwant Mann, who drew huge crowds throughout the campaign – while other parties were still putting their houses in order. The party and Mr Mann have also been targeted by their rivals, establishing them as a major contender for power even in a multi-cornered contest.

Charanjit Singh Channi, current chief minister and the Congress’s biggest hope, is from the Dalit community, which forms 32% of Punjab’s population. In his four months at the helm – after Amarinder Singh left the Congress after a bitter break-up – Mr Channi has projected himself as a common man whose heart beats for the ordinary Punjabi.

His appointment in September was seen as a politically astute call by the Congress – it led to fracturing of the power held by the Jat Sikh community and also appealed to Dalits.

But the Dalit vote is not a monolith so it’s hard to predict if it will consolidate behind Mr Channi, the state’s first Dalit chief minister.

He faces other challenges – the Congress is trying hard to shake off allegations of ineffective governance. It was also distracted in recent months by infighting and trying to pacify the bruised egos of top leaders such as Sunil Jakhar and Navjot Singh Sidhu, who hoped Mr Singh’s departure would ease their way to the top.

Mr Channi’s image was also dented by a raid by the Enforcement Directorate, a federal agency that fights financial crime, on his nephew over allegations corruption in sand mining contracts – Mr Channi has said these were politically motivated.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi from the BJP had pounced on it, accusing Mr Channi of insulting the state’s icons.

“Who is the chief minister insulting? Sant Ravi Dass (a Dalit icon) was born in Benaras (in Uttar Pradesh state). Where was Guru Gobind Singh (the last of the 10 Sikh gurus) born (Patna in Bihar)?” he asked at a recent rally.

Mr Modi’s BJP is in an alliance with two regional parties, including the one formed by Mr Singh, the former Congress chief minister.

The prime minister has also attacked Mr Kejriwal based on an unverified allegation made by one of the AAP leader’s former colleagues, who has accused him of supporting Sikh separatists.

Mr Kejriwal has dismissed the allegation, saying he must be “the world’s sweetest terrorist who builds hospitals”.

The BJP is also battling farmer anger over the three controversial laws that were repealed after a year of protests. But its alliance may get a push from the Hindu minority community in the state, which has usually sided with the party in power at the centre.

The SAD, which walked out of its alliance with the BJP over the farm laws, is trying hard to regain lost ground. It was expected to see a revival after the Congress couldn’t prove the allegations – which propelled it to power in 2017 – that senior SAD leaders had colluded with people responsible for incidents of sacrilege between 2014 and 2015.

But that hope was dashed when it took too long to announce a strong stand against the farm laws. While it later supported the farmers’ protests, resigned from Mr Modi’s cabinet and cut ties with the BJP, the issue still rankles in the minds of many voters.

The party, like its rivals, has announced a slew of freebies, including interest-free education loans for students to go abroad – which counts on the aspirations among young people to migrate to other countries due to lack of jobs in Punjab.

Though the farmers’ protest was a big election issue, candidates backed by the Sanyukt Samaj Morcha, an alliance of 22 farmer unions, which took shape after the agitation, are unlikely to win, observers say.